Two big elements are missing in a lot of political discourse. There is often a poor understanding of science and the process by which understanding of the world around us gained by observation can help to inform public policy. At the same time, there is also a lack of comprehension of how history has influenced the world around us. As Mark Henderson notes in his book, the Geek Manifesto, this is most likely not attributable to either an anti science or anti history bias amongst our elected representatives, it is just that in the hurly burly of daily politics, they lose sight of the importance of these two analytical tools. There are of course some who are positively against one or both of these disciplines. But the majority are not and with appropriate reminders it is hopeful that they can be persuaded of the importance of having both a historical perspective and a full understanding of the evidential basis for their decisions.
The above mentioned Mark Henderson makes an extremely eloquent case for using evidence based science as a tool in policy making. Perhaps more importantly, he shows, very tellingly, the perils of ignoring science or being anti scientific. This should of course, be self evident. A similar parallel is equal opportunities in the work place. No employer worth calling an employer can afford to discriminate in favour of one group of the population on the grounds of race, gender, sexuality or any of the other ways in which you can discriminate against people. Thus, equal opportunities needs to be implicit in ones employment policy. Sadly, human nature being what it is we also need to have explicit guidelines to ensure that people only focus on the important aspects of a person's ability to do the job for which you are selecting them.
It is the same with science. No one in their right mind would ignore the evidence for or against adopting a given policy however, once again, human nature can make people adopt illogical positions and hold ideas in contradiction of the evidence presented to them. Thus, we need to have explicit reminders that we need to consider the scientific evidence when making policy decisions.
Historical analysis needs to be at the centre of policy making as well. Nothing happens in isolation to what has gone before and a proper understanding of this is crucial to formulating any policy ideas. The most destructive government decisions can derive from a denial of history, in particularly the ahistorical doctrines of the extreme right and left such as Stalinist or Fascism. Other psychotic despots have also sought to deny history. Franco, in Spain believed that the entire nineteenth century had been an error for Spain and he sought to wind the clock back to the period before the 1812 liberal constitution. Pol Pot sought to recreate the Khmer empire based on year zero.
There are also more mundane examples of failed policies based on an incomplete historical understanding or wilful ignoring of the history behind a situation. Many decision makers in the west have an incomplete understanding of the development of the two main strands of Islam – Shia and Sunni. This then makes them see any conflict in very black and white terms. Thus, in Iraq Saddam Hussain was of Sunni origin and ruthlessly oppressed the Shia minority. Many people then portrayed the Shia as good and the Sunni as bad. However, in neighbouring Iran, the situation is the opposite way round and it is a Shia majority who oppress the Sunni minority. This is also complicated by the fact that Iran is not primarily an ethnically Arab country. Back in Iraq, Hussain was not primarily motivated by religious beliefs but rather in the political ideology of Baathism which seeks to generate a revolutionary Arab renaissance. This is a necessarily grossly simplified description of some of the historically based issues in the so called Middle East. Without an understanding any interventions by outside powers are going to run in to huge problems.
A lack of historical perspective can also work badly at the smallest level. If you visit Barcelona you will find lots of people taking part in a very slow and simple dance in La Plaça de Catalunya. I have deliberately used the Catalan rather than Castillian spelling. All through the Franco era, the Sardana which is a traditional Catalan dance was banned in the interests of Francos rigid centralism and suppression of regional nationalism. In the post Franco era, the government of Spain has embraced regionalism and the people of Barcelona have been busy renaming places such as the Plaza de Cataluña to the Plaça de Catalunya as well as dancing the Sardana in that square. Many tourists have sought to join in these dances and been brusquely brushed off to the distress of the friendly tourist. Were those tourists able to understand that the dance is more of a political statement rather than simply a cultural festival they might understand why they were not welcome to take part.
Of course, a case can be made for all sorts of academic disciplines to have their place in formulating policy. Geographers would point to the need to understand the concept of sense of place or hazards analysis when formulating housing policy. Anthropologists would insist that you need to fully understand all aspects of a culture before devising an aid plan for a poorer country.
However, if politicians take into account the historical perspective and then apply rigorous evidence based thoughts to how to move forward, it is likely that policy will be much more effective and legislation will stand a much better chance of achieving what it sets out to do.
Monday, 12 November 2012
Saturday, 20 October 2012
Further Thoughts on IT Provision and Indpendent Politics
The business of Government is a very complex affair. Although there are some similarities with a commercial enterprise there are also a great many differences. A commercial company sets out to deliver a given service or manufacture a product. A bank keeps, invests and moves money around. A Car manufacturer produces cars. A supermarket sells foodstuffs. A government on the other had has all sorts of different areas of business that are often as specialised as any of the above mentioned businesses. For example, a local authority has to provide a range of services ranging from rubbish collection to providing social care packages for extremely vulnerable residents. Also, as this work is funded through tax payer money there has to be a very complicated system of democratic oversight. Perhaps unsurprisingly, IT has come to be central to keeping this very diverse business functioning.
In many ways, the needs of commercial organisations and the IT systems they have make a poor fit for the more diverse requirements of government. Enterprise software is very complex and, by definition, specialised. Banks have well established systems for moving money around. By contrast, a government is going to need many very large and specialised software systems. However, there will be a relatively small market for them. This has contributed to a number of the very high profile IT procurement and implementation disasters that make the national news on an all too regular basis.
Thus, public sector IT professionals are left with an almost impossible set of circumstances where they need to deliver highly complex and frequently very bespoke solutions to a relatively small market.
The most common attitude is to view IT as purely a business cost and so outsource it. There are even elements where the company to which the IT provision is outsourced further outsources the actual delivery of the software so they can concentrate on their “core business” of providing consultancy. The practical upshot of this is a very complex set of contractual relationships where clear responsibility for service delivery is so far removed from the front line users that everyone experiences a poor service and the cost to the taxpayer is very high as well. The NHS National Program for IT was a particularly egregious example of this sort of problem.
Another big problem is that the major decision makers both amongst the elected members and the civil service frequently have an incomplete understanding of how IT systems can best be harnessed to serve the needs of government. This frequently leads to focussing on technology rather than business need which then leads to the wrong and frequently poor value technology decisions.
An example of this was the last government's ID card scheme. They awarded a huge contract to a supplier who would then collate vast amounts of personal data on a single database along with an untested “Smart card” ID to be carried by everyone. This proposal would have proven totally unworkable as well as providing a huge security risk in that the central database would be very vulnerable to abuse. Once again, the security concerns focussed on preventing unauthorized third parties from having access to the database while evidence is that most security breaches are the result of poor practise amongst those who have legitimate access to the data.
More recently, the roll out of passports with RFID chips in them has encouraged the Borders Agency to seek to make savings by deploying automated readers. This is highly inefficient and has been a major factor in the problems experienced by people at points of entry to the country.
There have been some success stories which, by virtue of their success do not get wide media coverage. In the wake of a major loss of data at the Inland Revenue as it was then, a method to allow accredited agencies to exchange data securely called the Government Connects Secure Extranet was developed.. Any organisation can, assuming they meet the necessary criteria, get a connection to this network which is independent of the Internet as a whole and so can be considered trusted to exchange data electronically. This has had a huge impact on easing the sharing of data between agencies and departments.
Clearly, there are major problems with IT provision in government. These have their roots in the issues outlined above. The solution will require a lot of rethinking of how IT systems are used and what influence they have on the business of government. The points below provide a basis looking at better ways of delivering IT.
1. IT is central to delivery of government and so technology decisions need to be at the core of any legislation that changes the way government works.
2. Government needs to retain full strategic control of all aspects of it's IT provision
3. Officers and Members need to be acutely aware of the principle of “Best Value” when procuring IT systems and not be overly wedded to one model of delivery without a sound basis for holding that decision.
4. Initial specification and procurement of systems are the most critical parts of any IT project.
5. Cooperation and collaboration can provide many advantages but they need to be managed very carefully.
In many ways, the needs of commercial organisations and the IT systems they have make a poor fit for the more diverse requirements of government. Enterprise software is very complex and, by definition, specialised. Banks have well established systems for moving money around. By contrast, a government is going to need many very large and specialised software systems. However, there will be a relatively small market for them. This has contributed to a number of the very high profile IT procurement and implementation disasters that make the national news on an all too regular basis.
Thus, public sector IT professionals are left with an almost impossible set of circumstances where they need to deliver highly complex and frequently very bespoke solutions to a relatively small market.
The most common attitude is to view IT as purely a business cost and so outsource it. There are even elements where the company to which the IT provision is outsourced further outsources the actual delivery of the software so they can concentrate on their “core business” of providing consultancy. The practical upshot of this is a very complex set of contractual relationships where clear responsibility for service delivery is so far removed from the front line users that everyone experiences a poor service and the cost to the taxpayer is very high as well. The NHS National Program for IT was a particularly egregious example of this sort of problem.
Another big problem is that the major decision makers both amongst the elected members and the civil service frequently have an incomplete understanding of how IT systems can best be harnessed to serve the needs of government. This frequently leads to focussing on technology rather than business need which then leads to the wrong and frequently poor value technology decisions.
An example of this was the last government's ID card scheme. They awarded a huge contract to a supplier who would then collate vast amounts of personal data on a single database along with an untested “Smart card” ID to be carried by everyone. This proposal would have proven totally unworkable as well as providing a huge security risk in that the central database would be very vulnerable to abuse. Once again, the security concerns focussed on preventing unauthorized third parties from having access to the database while evidence is that most security breaches are the result of poor practise amongst those who have legitimate access to the data.
More recently, the roll out of passports with RFID chips in them has encouraged the Borders Agency to seek to make savings by deploying automated readers. This is highly inefficient and has been a major factor in the problems experienced by people at points of entry to the country.
There have been some success stories which, by virtue of their success do not get wide media coverage. In the wake of a major loss of data at the Inland Revenue as it was then, a method to allow accredited agencies to exchange data securely called the Government Connects Secure Extranet was developed.. Any organisation can, assuming they meet the necessary criteria, get a connection to this network which is independent of the Internet as a whole and so can be considered trusted to exchange data electronically. This has had a huge impact on easing the sharing of data between agencies and departments.
Clearly, there are major problems with IT provision in government. These have their roots in the issues outlined above. The solution will require a lot of rethinking of how IT systems are used and what influence they have on the business of government. The points below provide a basis looking at better ways of delivering IT.
1. IT is central to delivery of government and so technology decisions need to be at the core of any legislation that changes the way government works.
2. Government needs to retain full strategic control of all aspects of it's IT provision
3. Officers and Members need to be acutely aware of the principle of “Best Value” when procuring IT systems and not be overly wedded to one model of delivery without a sound basis for holding that decision.
4. Initial specification and procurement of systems are the most critical parts of any IT project.
5. Cooperation and collaboration can provide many advantages but they need to be managed very carefully.
Friday, 19 October 2012
First "Real" Meeting of Democracy 2015
On 18 October Andreas Whittam Smith and his team had organised a meeting in London for the Democracy 2015 movement. It was well attended and some of the debate was very good. So far, my feeling is that the group have set themselves and impossible target of forming the next government.
I think that the idea of promoting independent MPs has real merit and should be supported though as a movement, there needs to be a bit more focus on process and less on ideas at the present so that achievable goals can be set and then reached.
We will have to see how it progresses.
I think that the idea of promoting independent MPs has real merit and should be supported though as a movement, there needs to be a bit more focus on process and less on ideas at the present so that achievable goals can be set and then reached.
We will have to see how it progresses.
Monday, 24 September 2012
The Independent Democracy 2015 campaign
After the initial flurry of announcements for this, the campaign is starting to take shape though some of the stuff on their Facebook page is very unfocussed. They do seem to be getting moving though with a series of public meetings in October. The London one is on the 17th.
They are slowly getting a proper web site up now
Democracy 2015
A lot of what Andreas Whittam-Smith wrote has a lot to recommend it. However, I am not entirely convinced about the idea of having MPs sit for one term only. Some very worthwhile policies that a strong independent contingent of MPs could help to develop would be very long term goals and the risk is that it would take more than one parliamentary term to get through.
Still, it is good to see a major newspaper take an interest in revitalising political life.
We shall see what the meeting is like anyway.
They are slowly getting a proper web site up now
Democracy 2015
A lot of what Andreas Whittam-Smith wrote has a lot to recommend it. However, I am not entirely convinced about the idea of having MPs sit for one term only. Some very worthwhile policies that a strong independent contingent of MPs could help to develop would be very long term goals and the risk is that it would take more than one parliamentary term to get through.
Still, it is good to see a major newspaper take an interest in revitalising political life.
We shall see what the meeting is like anyway.
Saturday, 8 September 2012
An Exciting Development for Independent Minded Politicians
Recently the Independent newspaper has launched a campaign called democracy 2015
click here Democracy2015
Andreas Whittam-Smith, the founding Editor of the Independent has summed up the concern of many with the professionalisation of party politics and is seeking to get a significant number of independent MPs elected at the next general election.
I am not sure about becoming a Westminster MP but the idea of joining the London Assembly or Borough is perhaps another thing.
I basically agree with what the aims of the campaign but it should be widened to include local democracy. One of the big problems with government is the reduction in grass roots involvement. Local Authorities have seen their powers undermined over many years and this is in part aided by the very low turnout at local government elections. Were there more independent minded candidates with a real connection to their ward, it would be more likely that participation in local affairs could be improved.
Of course, plans for standing for this may be severly curtailed by our other big project as outlined here
We shall see but I will be contacting the Democracy2015 team.
click here Democracy2015
Andreas Whittam-Smith, the founding Editor of the Independent has summed up the concern of many with the professionalisation of party politics and is seeking to get a significant number of independent MPs elected at the next general election.
I am not sure about becoming a Westminster MP but the idea of joining the London Assembly or Borough is perhaps another thing.
I basically agree with what the aims of the campaign but it should be widened to include local democracy. One of the big problems with government is the reduction in grass roots involvement. Local Authorities have seen their powers undermined over many years and this is in part aided by the very low turnout at local government elections. Were there more independent minded candidates with a real connection to their ward, it would be more likely that participation in local affairs could be improved.
Of course, plans for standing for this may be severly curtailed by our other big project as outlined here
We shall see but I will be contacting the Democracy2015 team.
Monday, 13 August 2012
Observations on the London Olympics
Like millions of Londoners I was delighted to have to eat my words about the Olympics. I can claim a lot of consistency though having been opposed to London getting the games from the original bid seven years ago. Then, I wound up being delighted with the whole thing from the opening ceremony. That said, I was less impressed with the closing ceremony. The thought uppermost in my mind now though is the so called legacy. How can we build on the success of the games?
A lot of people have talked about the decline in PE in schools as being a factor in increasing levels of poor health amongst children and also pointed to it being a factor in making it more difficult for elite athletes to come to the fore. I find myself partially agreeing with that though as someone who hated PE at school I don't entirely agree with that analysis. Compulsory humiliation of non sporty types being forced to humiliate themselves on the football field is not the way to inspire a generation. There is also the fact that the UK have had a very successful Olympics with the current situation in schools. I really doubt that selling of playing fields is going to be a factor in preventing someone who loves Judo and has a natural talent from seeking to get trained and then make the best of their talents.
There are then, two issues here. The first is to combat the issues with poor health amongst school children without severely affecting the self esteem of the ones who aren't sports oriented. The other is to inspire people who do enjoy sports to seek to reach the highest levels of their chosen sport.
Many educational experts will doubtless have lots of ideas about how to encourage wider participation in and benefit from sports and I would not presume to impose my ill informed views on them. The only observation would be that in my experience, I started enjoying PE at school when I got a relaxed teacher who allowed us to do what we wanted. There were a few of us who played tennis and we enjoyed that while some played soccer (I went to school in Canada) while a few others even enjoyed cross country running so they did that. I will come back to the issue of allowing children to chose what sport they would like to do.
The selling off of playing fields is not a good idea as it prevents the school from even being able to offer different sports. Even rugby and football have different requirements for this. I used to travel pas the fields of a South London school which were completely neglected including the cricket nets. They clearly used to have a cricket field which had been allowed to decay. I presume they did not sell it off for development as it had poor access to roads other than via the rest of the school grounds. Perhaps we would have won a few more test matches had that school still offered cricket as an option.
Coming back to the issue of offering a choice of sports, I would like to focus on sailing as an example. This is mostly because I have a passionate love of sailing and followed the fortunes of everyone in Weymouth most closely but also because it provides an excellent example of how a traditionally inaccessible sport could be made much more widely available.
Sailing has always been perceived as an elite sport that can only be done by the very rich. Now, granted, ocean racing requires very large sums of money and most are now sponsored though not always. Recently someone I know slightly completed the two handed Global Ocean Race with no headline sponsor.
Dinghy racing on the other hand is much more easily afforded. A quick check on Ebay showed that you could acquire a very nice Laser dinghy for around £1000. A good quality competitive bicycle would cost a similar amount. By setting your sights even lower, it is possible to pick up a Mirror dinghy for less than £500. Granted, it will not be in the best condition but the Laser is a very strict one design Olympic class and it would be identical to the one in which Tom Slingsby claimed gold medal in. In the cycling event, the cycle ridden by Victoria Pendleton would set you back on the order of £20000.
None of these facts are hidden but it is an uphill struggle to persuade people that this is true. Even with larger boats where the running costs become more significant can compare with other sports. When I owned my 22 foot Hurley cruising boat, I reckoned that the running costs would be on the order of £2000 a year including the mooring and winter storage and one major piece of maintenance a year. This compares well with having a season ticket for a premier league football team. Keeping a Laser in race trim is going to cost a quarter of that.
The way to get round this lies with the Royal Yachting Association and the education authorities. I would like to see the RYA work with local authorities and sailing clubs to set up a series of fleets of dinghies including such things as Optimists for the youngest, Lasers, 420s and even 470s or RS200s where schools could allow their pupils to try it out. A lot will not enjoy it. After all sailing a dinghy, racing in particular, does involve a fair amount of getting cold and wet! However, I am confident that some will really take to it and then go on. We might then have an even bigger pool of talent for the selectors for the Rio 2016 and wherever the 2020 games are to be held. Some will discover that racing is not their thing but, like me, will take to cruising.
This is where independent politicians can come in. They could work to persuade authorities and as a group, they could put these proposals to the RYA and we could see inter school laser championships where an Inner London comprehensive gives a Southampton Grammar a serious run for it's money!
A lot of people have talked about the decline in PE in schools as being a factor in increasing levels of poor health amongst children and also pointed to it being a factor in making it more difficult for elite athletes to come to the fore. I find myself partially agreeing with that though as someone who hated PE at school I don't entirely agree with that analysis. Compulsory humiliation of non sporty types being forced to humiliate themselves on the football field is not the way to inspire a generation. There is also the fact that the UK have had a very successful Olympics with the current situation in schools. I really doubt that selling of playing fields is going to be a factor in preventing someone who loves Judo and has a natural talent from seeking to get trained and then make the best of their talents.
There are then, two issues here. The first is to combat the issues with poor health amongst school children without severely affecting the self esteem of the ones who aren't sports oriented. The other is to inspire people who do enjoy sports to seek to reach the highest levels of their chosen sport.
Many educational experts will doubtless have lots of ideas about how to encourage wider participation in and benefit from sports and I would not presume to impose my ill informed views on them. The only observation would be that in my experience, I started enjoying PE at school when I got a relaxed teacher who allowed us to do what we wanted. There were a few of us who played tennis and we enjoyed that while some played soccer (I went to school in Canada) while a few others even enjoyed cross country running so they did that. I will come back to the issue of allowing children to chose what sport they would like to do.
The selling off of playing fields is not a good idea as it prevents the school from even being able to offer different sports. Even rugby and football have different requirements for this. I used to travel pas the fields of a South London school which were completely neglected including the cricket nets. They clearly used to have a cricket field which had been allowed to decay. I presume they did not sell it off for development as it had poor access to roads other than via the rest of the school grounds. Perhaps we would have won a few more test matches had that school still offered cricket as an option.
Coming back to the issue of offering a choice of sports, I would like to focus on sailing as an example. This is mostly because I have a passionate love of sailing and followed the fortunes of everyone in Weymouth most closely but also because it provides an excellent example of how a traditionally inaccessible sport could be made much more widely available.
Sailing has always been perceived as an elite sport that can only be done by the very rich. Now, granted, ocean racing requires very large sums of money and most are now sponsored though not always. Recently someone I know slightly completed the two handed Global Ocean Race with no headline sponsor.
Dinghy racing on the other hand is much more easily afforded. A quick check on Ebay showed that you could acquire a very nice Laser dinghy for around £1000. A good quality competitive bicycle would cost a similar amount. By setting your sights even lower, it is possible to pick up a Mirror dinghy for less than £500. Granted, it will not be in the best condition but the Laser is a very strict one design Olympic class and it would be identical to the one in which Tom Slingsby claimed gold medal in. In the cycling event, the cycle ridden by Victoria Pendleton would set you back on the order of £20000.
None of these facts are hidden but it is an uphill struggle to persuade people that this is true. Even with larger boats where the running costs become more significant can compare with other sports. When I owned my 22 foot Hurley cruising boat, I reckoned that the running costs would be on the order of £2000 a year including the mooring and winter storage and one major piece of maintenance a year. This compares well with having a season ticket for a premier league football team. Keeping a Laser in race trim is going to cost a quarter of that.
The way to get round this lies with the Royal Yachting Association and the education authorities. I would like to see the RYA work with local authorities and sailing clubs to set up a series of fleets of dinghies including such things as Optimists for the youngest, Lasers, 420s and even 470s or RS200s where schools could allow their pupils to try it out. A lot will not enjoy it. After all sailing a dinghy, racing in particular, does involve a fair amount of getting cold and wet! However, I am confident that some will really take to it and then go on. We might then have an even bigger pool of talent for the selectors for the Rio 2016 and wherever the 2020 games are to be held. Some will discover that racing is not their thing but, like me, will take to cruising.
This is where independent politicians can come in. They could work to persuade authorities and as a group, they could put these proposals to the RYA and we could see inter school laser championships where an Inner London comprehensive gives a Southampton Grammar a serious run for it's money!
Wednesday, 11 July 2012
Quite Amusing
This has been going the rounds of Facebook and such like. Rather sums up this year.
Not much to do with independent politics except that climate scientists are now claiming to be able to draw causal links between global warming and extreme weather so it looks as if we are in for more of the same!
Not much to do with independent politics except that climate scientists are now claiming to be able to draw causal links between global warming and extreme weather so it looks as if we are in for more of the same!
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